2025 Outlook: This is not a landing

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The US faces uncertainty under Trump 2.0, and Europe needs the kind of radical changes already seen in US exceptionalism. Our base case for asset class returns sees equities rising in single digits amid a backdrop of elevated real bond yields and an overvalued US dollar whose safe-haven status is being gradually eroded.

A key trend in 2025 will be transition investing, where we see rapid growth in products as decarbonization gains momentum. Nature action should also gain in importance following the success of the COP 16 biodiversity summit.