In our Q4 outlook we concluded that ‘it’s hard not to be bullish’. We argued that central banks took a risk by overtightening to win their war against inflation and concluded that this risk management approach to policy was increasing the valuation appeal of bonds. With valuations reaching a 15-year high, we believed that bonds could rally, not only in a recession scenario, which at the time seemed to be regarded by the market as a prerequisite for yields to decline, but also in a soft-landing alternative.
Has this rally already gone too far? It’s tempting to conclude that ‘the easy part’ of the rally could be over, if not for the fact that bond markets weren’t really easy this year. Nonetheless, we believe in the need for staying power to navigate volatility, as we continue to hold the view that yields have room to decline further.
A constructive approach
As we believe that the longer-term policy rate discounted by markets still seems too high, we remain constructive on government bonds. Any setback in yields is likely to be used by investors to add to bond exposures. The exception to this is Japan, a country that is facing higher levels of inflation while economic growth remains relatively strong. The BoJ seems to have realized that their policy mix needs to change away from being very easy.
Beware of premature conclusions
With regard to growth, we retain our below-consensus view as the drag of past rate hikes continues to feed through. We think it seems premature to conclude that a soft landing should now be the base case for the US economy. Furthermore, the Eurozone economy could stagnate for longer than the consensus thinks. We see broad-based evidence in the corporate sector that higher policy rates are impacting the broader economy via corporate defaults and restructurings in both the private and unlisted debt markets. It is not a question of ‘if’ but rather one of ‘when’ the impact of higher interest rates on the broader economy will become apparent.
For more detailed analysis read the full outlook here.
獲取最新市場觀點
訂閱我們的電子報,時刻把握投資資訊和專家分析。
免責聲明
本文由荷宝海外投资基金管理(上海)有限公司(“荷宝上海”)编制, 本文内容仅供参考, 并不构成荷宝上海对任何人的购买或出售任何产品的建议、专业意见、要约、招揽或邀请。本文不应被视为对购买或出售任何投资产品的推荐或采用任何投资策略的建议。本文中的任何内容不得被视为有关法律、税务或投资方面的咨询, 也不表示任何投资或策略适合您的个人情况, 或以其他方式构成对您个人的推荐。 本文中所包含的信息和/或分析系根据荷宝上海所认为的可信渠道而获得的信息准备而成。荷宝上海不就其准确性、正确性、实用性或完整性作出任何陈述, 也不对因使用本文中的信息和/或分析而造成的损失承担任何责任。荷宝上海或其他任何关联机构及其董事、高级管理人员、员工均不对任何人因其依据本文所含信息而造成的任何直接或间接的损失或损害或任何其他后果承担责任或义务。 本文包含一些有关于未来业务、目标、管理纪律或其他方面的前瞻性陈述与预测, 这些陈述含有假设、风险和不确定性, 且是建立在截止到本文编写之日已有的信息之上。基于此, 我们不能保证这些前瞻性情况都会发生, 实际情况可能会与本文中的陈述具有一定的差别。我们不能保证本文中的统计信息在任何特定条件下都是准确、适当和完整的, 亦不能保证这些统计信息以及据以得出这些信息的假设能够反映荷宝上海可能遇到的市场条件或未来表现。本文中的信息是基于当前的市场情况, 这很有可能因随后的市场事件或其他原因而发生变化, 本文内容可能因此未反映最新情况,荷宝上海不负责更新本文, 或对本文中不准确或遗漏之信息进行纠正。